David Empey

The polls just get worse and worse for those who lean to the left side of the political spectrum. The latest has the Conservatives 13% ahead of the Liberals. Worse, Canadians fear of that Party seems to have disappeared, and there is a general feeling the party now has the momentum.

These numbers are in stark contrast to what I predicted at the outset of the campaign. I am, to say the least, surprised that the Conservatives under Stephen Harper have been able to make the gains they have in Ontario (and in Toronto in particular). However, in my defense, election campaigns are unpredictable things. And I didn’t count on yet another Liberal scandal (the income trust business). And, looking at the polls, it is that scandal which seems to have been the turning point.

I’m still hopeful, however, that the Conservatives can be held to a minority government (probably the best case scenario at this point). It is starting to look like that will be determined in Quebec. Now there’s an interesting choice – more Bloc Quebecois members, or a Conservative majority instead. A little like choosing your method of execution.